Who wins the 2026 World Cup? An actuarial forecast

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Who wins the 2026 World Cup? An actuarial forecast

An ensemble actuarial forecast predicting the winner of the 2026 World Cup.

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John Kueh @johnkueh

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yesterday · model from Jun 9, 2026

This dashboard blends four independent estimators—betting markets, the Opta supercomputer, Goldman Sachs' model, and a custom Monte Carlo simulation—into one probability-weighted answer. It predicts Spain as the favorite (~20% probability) and forecasts Spain beating Argentina in the final.

#dashboard#forecast#football#sports

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